经济学人精读节选100篇Should you buy expensive stocks?你应该买贵的股票吗?


本期选文来源:The Economist|June 8th 2024 ,需要经济学人原版PDF|全文中英翻译|MP3|大家下拉至文末下载|也可以自助开通本站会员后加入专属QQ社群或下拉至文末获取全文文档PDF中英翻译PDF,MOBI,EPUB,AZW3,MP3🎵等多种格式。
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Should you buy expensive stocks?


【导读】A new paper suggests the answer is “yes”一篇新论文表明答案是肯定的。

【1】ON JUNE 7 TH each share in Nvidia is due to become many. In one sense such stock splits ought not to matter much: they merely lower the share price, usually returning it to somewhere near $100, in order to make small trades easier. Yet for the company and its longtime backers this administrative exercise is cause to pop the champagne. For a split to be necessary in the first place, the share price must have multiplied, commonly by two or three, prompting each share to be divided by the same factor. Each Nvidia share, however, will become ten. Two years ago both Alphabet and Amazon split each of their shares into 20. Investors in big tech have had plenty of opportunities to let the corks fly.

单词解析:commonly:adv. 通常地;常常;通常;大多数人地

例句:This is one of the most commonly used methods. 这是最常采用的方法之一。

6 月 7 日,英伟达的每股股票将变多。从某种意义上说,这种股票分割应该无关紧要:它们只是降低股价,通常将其恢复到100美元附近,以使小额交易更容易。然而,对于该公司及其长期支持者来说,这种行政行为是开香槟的原因。首先,要使拆分成为必要,股价必须乘以两到三,促使每股除以相同的因子。然而,英伟达的每股股票将变成十个。两年前,Alphabet和亚马逊都将其股份分成20股。大型科技公司的投资者有很多机会让软木塞飞起来。

【2】All three firms have made traditional valuation measures look hopelessly outdated. Dividend yields, for instance, were once a popular tool for assessing prospective returns. But Amazon has never made such a payout and Alphabet will make its first ever on June 17th (of 20 cents per $175 share). Nvidia’s quarterly dividend after the split will be just one cent per share, each priced at around $120. Plainly, there is no stretch of the imagination by which these payouts explain the stocks’ spectacular returns.

单词解析:payout:n. 付出的巨款

例句:Developing Education of Countryside by Use of Public Payout 利用公共支出发展农村教育

这三家公司都让传统的估值指标看起来无可救药地过时了。例如,股息收益率曾经是评估预期回报的流行工具。但亚马逊从未支付过这样的费用,Alphabet 将在 6 月 17 日首次支付(每股 175 美元股票 20 美分)。英伟达拆分后的季度股息仅为每股1美分,每股价格约为120美元。显然,这些派息无法解释股票的惊人回报。

【3】The stage is, therefore, set for the revival of a fierce argument. Low yields might mean that dividends will rise, or that future returns will be poor. Reams of academic research suggest that, historically and for the stockmarket as a whole, they have portended poor returns. Even so, a school of thought has stubbornly held that investors know what they are doing, and if they are buying stocks that yield little, they must expect payouts to grow. Of late, hewing to this school and buying the likes of Alphabet, Amazon and Nvidia would have made you a lot richer than fretting about valuations. So could it be correct after all?

单词解析:fierce:adj.凶猛的;猛烈的;狂热的;(外表上)险恶的;(机械装置等)作用强烈(或猛烈)的;不友好的,难接近的;<英方>精力旺盛的;极不好的 adv.可厌地;非常,很

例句:The fire gave out a fierce heat. 火焰散发出炽热。


【4】Andrew Atkeson, Jonathan Heathcote and Fabrizio Perri, three economists, have recently waded into the debate. In a working paper they argue that movements in the price and dividends of a broad share index between 1929 and 2023 can be explained purely by a model of expected future dividends (specifically, the ratio of these to aggregate consumption). In other words, prices move only when investors receive news that changes their expectation of future payouts. Otherwise, they demonstrate impeccable restraint.


例句:You need to demonstrate more self-control. 你应该表现出更强的自制力。

安德鲁·阿特克森(Andrew Atkeson)、乔纳森·希斯科特(Jonathan Heathcote)和法布里齐奥·佩里(Fabrizio Perri)这三位经济学家最近也加入了这场辩论。在一份工作论文中,他们认为,1929 年至 2023 年间广泛股票指数的价格和股息变动可以纯粹用预期未来股息模型(具体来说,这些股息与总消费的比率)来解释。换句话说,只有当投资者收到改变他们对未来派息预期的消息时,价格才会变动。否则,他们表现出无可挑剔的克制。

【5】Contrast this with the alternative view, which is that prices move for all sorts of other reasons, too. The value of a stock is the sum of its expected future cashflows, discounted by myriad factors such as the uncertainty of the expectation, the cost of capital and investors’ risk appetite. Changes to any of these will feed through to stock prices. In particular, if risk appetite is high, prices may also be high relative to expected payouts simply because investors are able to take more risk and hence happy to receive low yields in return. Conversely, if risk appetite is low, investors may feel unable to buy stocks even if their expected payouts are high. This dynamic alone can change both yields and prospective returns, without expected payouts changing at all.


例句:But by 2030 or 2040, those cashflows will be generated by our children. 但是在2030年或者2040年为止,这些资金流都得由我们的子辈来创造。


【6】Previous work—most notably a landmark paper published in 2011 by John Cochrane, then of the University of Chicago—has concluded that it is entirely changes to such “discount rates”, rather than growing or shrinking dividends, that cause yields to vary. Unfortunately, Messrs Atkeson, Heathcote and Perri do not present an effective challenge to this notion. Rather, they construct a model that relates prices to dividends, plus a third variable that they then derive and dub “expected dividends”. Naturally, the addition of this residual explains the price changes it is defined to explain. But you might equally call it “risk appetite”, and claim a win for the other side of the debate.


例句:The walk gave me a good appetite. 散步使我胃口大开。

之前的研究——最著名的是芝加哥大学的约翰·科克伦(John Cochrane)在2011年发表的一篇具有里程碑意义的论文——得出的结论是,导致收益率变化的完全是这种“贴现率”的变化,而不是股息的增长或减少。不幸的是,阿特克森先生、希斯科特先生和佩里先生并没有对这一概念提出有效的挑战。相反,他们构建了一个将价格与股息联系起来的模型,再加上第三个变量,然后他们得出并称之为“预期股息”。当然,这个残差的添加解释了它被定义为解释的价格变化。但你同样可以称之为“风险偏好”,并声称辩论的另一方取得了胜利。

【7】Where does that leave today’s low-yielding superstar stocks? It is always tempting to believe that today’s forecasts are simply better than yesterday’s, and the old patterns no longer apply. A stronger defence is that dividends have gone out of fashion. Earnings may thus be a better proxy for returns since they can be used to reward investors in other ways (by buying back shares to generate a capital gain, for instance). On this measure, such firms do not look quite so eye-wateringly expensive. Yet they are hardly cheap, with Nvidia valued at more than 100 times its most recent full-year earnings. Perhaps investors are correctly predicting more barnstorming growth ahead. More likely, they are once again falling into the trap of thinking “this time is different”.

单词解析:barnstorming:(演出、比赛等)令人兴奋的,激烈的,精彩的 v.作巡回政治演说(或宣传、游说等)

例句:The election is the day after tomorrow and the presidential candidates are barnstorming through the country. 大选将在后天举行,总统候选人们马不停蹄地在多个摇摆州转战演说。



1)原文:Contrast this with the alternative view, which is that prices move for all sorts of other reasons, too.


Contrast(谓语) this with the alternative view, (which is | that prices move(谓语) || for all sorts (of other) (后置定语)reasons, [too]).(非限定性定语从句)


contrast 为谓语。
which 为关系代词,引导非限制性定语从句。
is 为系动词作谓语,采用一般现在时。
that 为连词,引导表语从句。
move 为谓语,采用一般现在时。
for all 引导状语从句。
reasons 为谓语,采用一般现在时。动词采用第三人称单数形式。
this 为指示代词。other 为不定代词。the 为定冠词。



经济学人精读节选100篇Should you buy expensive stocks? 你应该买贵的股票吗?插图3

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